Central bank data show Indonesia’s currency has been losing value to the dollar since President Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration, contradicting conspiratorial claims online that the weakening of the rupiah was a punishment for his government’s reported rejection of an IMF loan offer in April 2026. Multiple experts dismissed the allegations, telling AFP a multitude of factors are responsible for the depreciation, including global uncertainty from the Middle East war and investor sentiment towards Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.
“Because Indonesia rejected the loan offer from the US International Monetary Fund (IMF), the rupiah has weakened,” says Indonesian-language text on a TikTok video which has been viewed more than 700,000 times since it was posted on May 21, 2026.
The video shows finance influencer Gema Goeyardi, who is known for analysing markets using “astronacci” — a method that apparently combines astrology and the mathematical fibonacci pattern.
In the clip — taken from his YouTube account — Gema says the rupiah is weakening because Indonesia is “being attacked for defending its sovereignty”.
He goes on to say the currency depreciation shows Prabowo’s government is “being bullied” after Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa reportedly rejected an IMF loan offer in April 2026 (archived link).
Gema contrasts the decision with former president Suharto’s acceptance of an IMF bailout during the Asian financial crisis in 1998 — viewed locally as a loss of sovereignty and a moment of national humiliation (archived here and here).
Screenshot of the false post captured on June 3, 2026, with a red X added by AFP
Similar baseless posts also racked up tens of thousands of views on Instagram and Facebook as the rupiah continued to hit successive record lows, dropping below 18,000 to the US dollar on June 4 (archived link).
IMF financing
Finance Minister Purbaya told local media he had rejected loan offers from the IMF and World Bank during IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, which took place from April 13 to April 18.
According to Purbaya, the IMF and World Bank prepared between $20 billion to $30 billion to assist countries in need of support during the recent period of global uncertainty, triggered by the Middle East war.
“I told them that I do not need them (loans) right now, because we have a reserve of almost $25 billion,” Purbaya said, adding the country’s financial condition is secure.
AFP reached out to the finance ministry for clarification on the nature of the purported loan offer, but no response was forthcoming.
An IMF spokesperson told AFP that during the Spring Meetings, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke of a potential increase in demand for IMF financing from vulnerable and low-income countries due to the Middle East war (archived link).
“Such financing is estimated to be in the range of $20-$50 billion in total depending on the duration and severity of the war,” they said on June 13.
They added that the fund had also recognised Indonesia’s “strong fundamentals and discussed with the authorities the importance of preserving Indonesia's longstanding policy soundness and credibility and why protecting buffers remains key”.
Currency crash
But the rupiah had been losing value to the dollar long before Jakarta announced it had rejected an IMF loan offer in April.
Figures from the archipelago’s central bank show the currency’s weakening trend since Prabowo took office in October 2024Â (archived link).
John SAEKIAFP
(John SAEKI / AFP)
Moreover, local and international news reports have documented successive record lows for the rupiah against the greenback.
The Business Times newspaper reported in February 2025 that the currency had dropped to a five-year low (archived link).
The following month, the Financial Times published an article that said Indonesia’s currency had fallen to its weakest level since the Asian financial crisis (archived link).
In April, local media Jakarta Globe reported the currency briefly breached the 17,000 level against the dollar (archived link).
According to the articles, investors were spooked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and by unease over Jakarta’s ambitious spending plan.
The latter includes Prabowo’s flagship multibillion-dollar free lunch programme for schoolchildren and pregnant women that had put a strain on government finances.
Combination of factors
There is no direct link between the weakening of the rupiah and Jakarta’s reported rejection of the IMF’s loan offer, said Latif Adam, a senior economist with the country’s National Research and Innovation Agency (archived link).
“From an economic standpoint, the exchange rate, whether its appreciation or depreciation, is determined by the demand for and supply of foreign currency,” he told AFP in a June 2 email.
“In this case, it is influenced by factors, such as the flow of foreign capital, investors’ perception of economic stability and prospect and the dynamic of global economic and geopolitical situations.”
Latif went on to say the IMF and the World Bank can influence exchange rate movements “not because they grant or withhold loans, but rather because of how these two institutions assess Indonesia’s economic conditions”.
Deni Friawan, researcher at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, separately said the current weakening of the rupiah was due to a combination of factors, including the conflict in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve’s high interest rates (archived link).
“Since inflation in the United States remains high, that drives capital out of the emerging markets, including Indonesia,” he told AFP in a May 29 email.
“There are also concerns regarding Indonesia’s fiscal management, the rising gasoline subsidy, and also various government policies that add more fuel to the uncertainty.”
Deni added that laying the blame for Indonesia’s weakening currency at the door of the IMF felt like a “diversion”.
“It’s easier to blame them because Indonesia has had bad experience with foreign actors with the colonisation, and the foreign actors who are blamed would not — or be reluctant to — respond.”
AFP has previously debunked more misinformation around IMF loans.
