Disaster risk reduction during armed conflicts – CEOBS

The silence of Sendai

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is a global agreement adopted in 2015 that guides action on reducing the risk of disasters, and the losses they cause. It provides a roadmap for countries to move towards prevention, preparedness, and resilience rather than just humanitarian disaster response. It has four priority areas that align with the Sustainable Development Goals: to increase understanding of disaster risk, strengthen governance, invest in resilience, and improve preparedness and recovery. Countries are encouraged to submit self-assessment reports of their progress in seven key areas that include developing national disaster risk strategies, strengthening international cooperation, and improving access to early warning systems by 2030. To date, progress towards these goals has been unequal across countries, and explanations for these discrepancies have often neglected the role of armed conflict. 

The Sendai Framework has deliberately insulated itself from peacebuilding and statebuilding agendas in an effort to secure universal political agreement. During initial negotiations, the terms ‘armed conflict' and ‘foreign occupation' were purposefully excluded because some governments viewed them as politically sensitive. As a result, action plans for reducing disaster risk in Myanmar, Libya or Syria make no reference to the political environment being a major barrier to progress. As the incidence of violent conflict is increasing — it has doubled between non-state armed groups, for instance, since 2010 — there is every likelihood that this apolitical stance is entrenching inequality and vulnerability in the world's most fragile regions.  

In 2021, the UN formally recognised armed conflict as a hazard, and in 2023 a midterm review of the Sendai Framework acknowledged conflict and geopolitical tension as part of the broader risk landscape impacting its progress. However, briefings outlining the major operational gaps and challenges in conflict and post-conflict settings repeatedly highlight the significant need for more rigorous research on the design, implementation and outcomes of DRR initiatives in conflict and fragile contexts. At present, there are no disaster risk reduction strategies that fully consider how conflict affects vulnerability and hazard exposure, or use that understanding to guide the design and implementation of effective strategies.

After 2030, the Sendai Framework will either be superseded by a new global disaster risk reduction framework or will become embedded into other international frameworks; for example on development or climate action. With political will, there is an opportunity to develop a new peacebuilding-DRR agenda.