El Nino could push temperatures higher, UN warns

The UN weather agency on Tuesday issued an update predicting an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event between June and August of this year. 

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according to the WMO. 

The weather pattern can lead to increased temperatures worldwide, increasing rainfall to some parts of the world and prompting droughts in others, while also spurring hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific. 

What did the WMO say about the chances and effects of El Nino? 

The WMO said that as well as the 80% chance of El Nino beteween June and August, there was a probability “near or above 90%” of it continuing until at least November if it began. 

“Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models will suggest it will be at least moderate — and possibly strong,” the WMO said. 

The WMO’s most senior official said it would be prudent to prepare for the most serious scenario.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino ​event — which will ‌exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Ohter associated risks can include higher prevalences of diseases spread by insects like mosquitoes or ticks — as well as reduceed food and water supplies. 

At-risk crops susceptible to climate change like cocoa could also face unusually poor harvests.

What did the UN’s Guterres say? 

Indications of a likely El Nino period have been gathering and noted by the WMO and other groups for several months now, in large part because of high ocean temperatures. 

The last El Nino period between 2023 and 2024 contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record worldwide.

“El Nino will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a video statement. “Impacts will hit even harder, travel even further, and cross borders with devastating speed.”

He said that the “only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis,” such as ending the fossil fuel “addiction,” accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and delivering early warning systems for all, seemingly mixing and matching between long-term plans and more immediate mitigation methods for the coming months.

Heat waves in western Europe, parts of Asia

The warning follows soon after an early summer heat wave bringing record May temperatures to several parts of western Europe. 

It also coincides with typically high temperatures in parts of Asia like India and China. 

In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific — the area used as a monitoring reference — was approaching El Nino thresholds, the WMO said, with sub-surface temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius (roughly 10.8 Fahrenheit) above average.

The WMO said that for June to August, forecasts project “a nearly universal dominance of above normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe”.

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Edited by: Wesley Rahn