Ekspor UK ke Timur Tengah anjlok saat perang Iran menghantam ekonomi

Anyone hoping for the blockade to come to an end this week has been “deeply disappointedâ€, points out Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

The latest news from the White House suggests that President Trump is looking at measures to maintain the blockade for an extended period if necessary. The President met with oil company executives, presumably to boost US refinery production, especially for diesel and jet fuel. Financial markets will now need to price in the prospect of a prolonged blockade. This is obviously impacting on the oil price, which is higher by nearly 10% in the past 5 sessions. It could also lead to higher futures prices, as the market adjusts to a long-term closure of the Strait.

We assume the President wants US oil companies to boost production, however, if US oil refineries focus on ramping up production of jet fuel and diesel, it could reduce output of other products, which may lead to broader inflationary pressures for the global economy. This is a new phase of the war in Iran, and we could now see oil prices go back to the March highs around $120 per barrel for Brent.

As always with President Trump, his rhetoric on Truth Social may not reflect reality. The President has also urged Iran to sign a deal to end the US blockade. The US is using the blockade to squeeze Iran, we will now find out how long they can hold out.

If this is a long-term blockade, we will find out whether financial markets are underpricing the risks of the war in the Middle East.

The London stock market is extending its earlier losses, as concerns mount about the lack of progress to end the Iran war.

The FTSE 100 share index is now down 126 points, or 1.2%, at 10,206 points, its lowest level since 1 April.

Back in the energy markets, oil and gas prices are pushing higher amid worries that the US blockage of Iran may drag on for months.

Brent crude is up 5% at almost $117 a barrel, close to the highest level set since the Iran war began ($119.50 a barrel).

The UK month-ahead gas price is up 5% at 113.86p a therm, while the benchmark Dutch front-month contract was up 5.35% at €45.93 per megawatt hour (MWh)

Energy prices rose following reports that U.S. President Donald Trump met with top officials from energy companies on Tuesday to talk about steps that could be taken to calm oil markets if it is necessary to continue the blockade of Iranian ports for months, a White House official said on Wednesday.

The talks centered on U.S. oil production, oil futures, shipping and natural gas, the official said (via Reuters).

AstraZeneca's decision to invest £300m in the UK is “super encouragingâ€, says Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the Wealth Club, suggesting momentum is returning to pharmaceutical industry in the UK.

The restart of the Cambridge expansion, as part of a £300m UK investment package, is highly symbolic. It demonstrates how the government has been working hard behind the scenes to try and make the UK more attractive to big pharma, following the shock announcement of the project being mothballed. There is set to be higher spending on medicines and a more accommodating pricing framework, helping ensure the UK is no longer seen as a low-price outlier compared to global peers.

The tariff environment has also shifted which is also likely to be behind this move. With the row over the legitimacy of Donald Trump's tariffs ending up in the courts, the immediate potency of US trade policy has been diluted. More importantly, a targeted agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States is set to give UK-made drugs a tariff-free route into the US market for the next few years, insulating exporters from the worst of the remaining threats.

Even so, this needs to be put into perspective, as the UK investment pales in comparison with the tens of billions of dollars being poured into production facilities across the US and China.â€

Over in the US, new housebuilding construction has hit its highest level in a year.

Housing starts increased 10.8% to an annual rate of 1.5 million homes in March, the highest since December 2024, according to figures released Wednesday by the Census Bureau.

The data suggest that US homebuilders boosted production despite ongoing affordability concerns, fuelled by the Iran war.

Thomas Ryan, North America Economist at Capital Economics, says home construction picked up as “harsh winter conditions gave way to an unseasonably warm start to Springâ€, adding:

Positively, this strength was driven by a 15% increase in single-family starts to 1.03m annualised – their highest in over a year – while starts in the typically volatile multi-family segment whipsawed. Based on the weakness in forward-looking permits data and homebuilder confidence, we do not expect this strength to last.

Science Secretary Liz Kendall has welcomed AstraZeneca's plan, saying:

“This investment is another significant vote of confidence in our science community and backs British research to do what it does best – develop the drugs, treatments, and innovations that improve lives.

“AstraZeneca's investment will protect and create jobs and underlines the excellence and expertise of this country's world-leading life sciences sector. Alongside the partnership we agreed with the United States earlier this month, this is how we are delivering real innovation that will transform outcomes for patients here at home and around the world.â€

AstraZeneca is planning to create new R&D jobs in Macclesfield through its new funding, but was unable to say how many.

In Cambridge, the company will move people from several other buildings into the new Rosalind Franklin office building, including scientists who do data analysis and statistics and molecular scientists who do desk based work.

Although the £300m of funding is not to be sniffed at – especially if you're a prime minister desperate for some good news – it is dwarfed by some of AstraZeneca's other investments recently.

Last July, AstraZeneca announced it will invest $50bn (£37bn) in the US by 2030, after Donald Trump threatened the pharmaceuticals industry with hefty new tariffs on drugs made abroad.

Then in January, it pledged $15bn of investment in China, during a visit by Keir Starmer to the country.

The £300m of new funding from AstraZeneca is made up of the paused £200m project in Cambridge and £100m new money for the “lab of the future†in Macclesfield.

The expansion of its Cambridge research site will be named after Rosalind Franklin, the English chemist whose X-ray crystallography work was vital to cracking the structure of DNA.

The building is near the Disc, the AZ headquarters, in Cambridge.

CEO Pascal Soriot told reporters:

“We thought it was only fair to to represent the contribution of a great, female scientist to the discovery of DNA. And that's the background for the name of this building.â€

It's notable that Keir Starmer credited his pharmaceuticals deal with the US for persuading AstraZeneca to invest £300m in the UK.

That transatlantic agreement is controversial, as it involves the UK paying 25% more for new medicines by 2035.

But it also means British drug exports to the US will escape tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, and will also give patients in Britain greater access to potentially life-extending drugs.

Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca's chief executive, has thanked the UK government “for their effort to improve access for patients, including four new [drug] approvals since the beginning of the year, and we look forward to further enhancing the access and the reimbursement environment and build a strong life sciences sectorâ€.

Newsflash: Pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca is investing £300m in its UK operations, Sir Keir Starmer has announced.

Starmer revealed the plan to MPs during prime minister's questions, seven months after AstraZeneca paused a planned £200m expansion of its Cambridge research site.

Starmer said the move would protect jobs in Cambridge, where AstraZeneca operates a global R&D facility, and in Macclesfield, which hosts a science, technology and manufacturing hub and is the company's second largest manufacturing site.

Starmer told the House of Commons:

Today I can announce a significant new investment, by AstraZeneca, investing £300m in UK life sciences, made possible by the pharmaceutical arrangement we have struck with the United States, to future-proof thousands of jobs in Macclesfield and in Cambridge.

That is a major vote of confidence in the UK, and Labour's plans to strengthen our economy.

Last September, AstraZeneca halted a planned £200m expansion of its Cambridge research site, which was seen as a blow to the UK pharmaceutical industry.

In January 2025, the company scrapped plans to invest £450m in its vaccine manufacturing facility in Merseyside, and blamed a cut in the funding on offer from the government.

Britain has asked UK refineries to maximise jet fuel supply as it continues to plan for a range of contingencies to increase flexibility on supply, the government said on Wednesday.

Energy minister Michael Shanks told MPs that the government has been “closely monitoring UK jet fuel stocks†since the closure of the strait of Hormuz last month, and is working with airlines, airports, fuel suppliers and international counterparts.

In a written answer, Shanks explained:

The Government continues to plan for a range of contingencies to increase flexibility on jet fuel supply, we have asked UK refineries to maximise jet fuel supply.

Airport Coordination Limited has updated its guidance to allow airlines to apply for slot alleviation, providing greater flexibility to plan flights. I encourage all passengers to check their rights before travelling and in the first instance to contact their airline, travel agent or tour operator where they have concerns.

We have published a fact sheet on GOV.UK that will be kept updated, alongside Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office travel advice.

Shanks also points out that UK airlines typically buy fuel months in advance, and that aviation fuel suppliers hold bunkered stocks.

The UK also imports jet fuel supplies from a range of countries not reliant on the strait of Hormuz being open, including the United States, he adds, pointing out:

Airlines UK have stated that “UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.†The Government continues to work with partners to monitor and mitigate potential disruptions.

Earlier this month, the head of a global energy watchdog warned that Europe only had six weeks of jet fuel left before shortages will hit because of the Iran war.